AUD/USD Forecast: RSI Offers Bearish Signal Ahead of RBA Meeting

AUD/USD Forecast: RSI Offers Bearish Signal Ahead of RBA Meeting

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso were still turning the tires against the greenback Monday, keeping considerably contrite intervals to bounce around. The Australian dollar will be center stage next week, as a large number of data publications and an RBA political meeting will be watched for any clues as to the direction of interest rates. With both the dollar and the pound rising on the negative foot during the past week, the euro has not been able to capitalize on their weakness in particular as the economic data from the euro area continues to disappoint.

Employment growth picked up substantially towards the end of 2018, but a lot of the growth was part-time work, which may explain why wage growth actually moderated during the year. The new growth and inflation scenario will be outlined in view of the RBA meeting on 2 August. Regardless of whether the market moves forward with systemic bullish or bearish trends through collective speculation or behind the flag of an overt fundamental theme, they cannot afford to ignore the fundamental sparks they ignite in the open market. Lowe's recent optimistic tone, however, has done little to convince the markets that the next rate move will, as with overnight index swaps, keep a 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut being seen by November 2019. Yes set aside the non-farm payroll report, the hours before, and chose to focus on the ISM Manufacturing report as it offers the most up-to-date snapshot of US economic activity while the employment relationship was more backward looking. They prefer the status quo, but this does not mean that they can take advantage of comfort rather than developing a dynamic trend.

If wage growth does not kick the upper gear, consumption and hence inflation, it may take longer to collect, delaying any rate hikes that would make household debt unsustainable. Similarly, a surprise increase, suggesting underlying resilience, could strengthen Sterling. As looked at last Thursday, that larger uptrend image may not yet be ready for continuation and with short-term price action possessing resistance to an area before support, which the scenario remains the same as we move into a cool week.

When thought of as a device of transactive vitality, blockchain prices are steep, they say. Producer prices are also due on Monday, while on Tuesday, final prints of IHS Markit PMI and composites are released along with December retail sales. Prices of weighed raw materials In addition, concerns about weak global growth have weighed on the complex commodity, with most sectors ending in red on Friday. See ourquarterly forecastto gold learn what will drive prices until mid-year! As looked at last month, gold prices on the weekly chart had become more overbought than at any time since 2011.

The first week of Q4 has been rather the change of pace so far. Next week brings Thanksgiving to the United States, which means that the latter portion of next week will probably be populated by low liquidity conditions. Thus, it was a pretty versatile week for the British pound.

The Bank of Canada said further rate hikes will be needed in the next period but if growth remains weak, the BoC can follow the Fed and suspend its tightening cycle. In response, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may come under pressure for more committed to a rate easing cycle, but the central bank may move to the sidelines at the next meeting on November 5 as the US plan and China to finalize phase one 'of the trade dealahead for Asia-Pacific economic cooperation (APEC) meetingscheduled for November 15-16. The Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will be the next in the central bank to set monetary policy amid rising risks and uncertainty about the prospects.

The RBA has so far mostly attached to its prospects for rosy growth for 2019, but the markets disagree and are considering a small probability of a rate cut by the end of the year. However, they are expected to keep the official discount rate (OCR) at an all-time low on December 3, and the central bank can tame speculation that a rate cut is looming as the outlook for the Australian economy has been little changed by August. However, they can continue to approve a forward guidance dovish as the Bank's latest forecasts suggested that the unemployment and inflation results over the next two years were able to be short of the Bank's objectives. Next week, he will release the minutes of his last meeting on Tuesday, but macro definitions for the pair will depend on Chinese data on Wednesday, and the Australian Thursday March job figures. In turn, they can reiterate that the central bank is ready to ease monetary policy further if the prospects for weakening global growth are needed.