There's an interesting story in today's Financial Times that might be used as the basis for an explanation of why the gold price is in a bearish trend. If you have no idea what this story is about, let me fill you in.
Recently, many people have been talking about how China and Japan are stopping buying oil because their refineries and other aspects of their economies are stifled. In order to do this, they are having to get other nations to buy oil with them rather than doing it themselves. It appears as though the world is about to move away from oil to become dependent on electric power, with the future reliance being on nuclear power to provide energy.
Naturally, we've already witnessed this trend taking place within the last 50 years, during the industrial revolution. You can see the beginnings of an electric age occurring within the nations of Western Europe and the United States. Once these things begin to happen, then there will be so much dependence on electric power that this is going to be the predominant source of energy for the foreseeable future.
This means that gold prices will be closely monitored by investors for the next few months, and I don't see this trend continuing much longer because of the fact that the fundamentals of this story don't look very good. The fact that the US has already cut back on its own consumption of oil does not bode well for the price of gold, because it also implies that the nation is really not worried about the cost of oil as much as other nations are.
At this point, the European nations have almost become fossil fuel independent, which is not too far off from the end of the industrial revolution. They have already completely scrapped the more expensive forms of fuel, but they still rely on oil heavily to power their vehicles.
As well, since the countries of Western Europe are now fossil fuel independent, the gold prices are on a negative slope. At this point, you would need to have about twenty-five times the price of gold in order to purchase one ounce of gold at current prices.
The concern that many gold analysts have, and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who disagrees with this assessment, is that this gold price outlook is very unfavorable for the future of gold prices. The current trend looks very unfavorable for the long term, and a number of them might see the gold price decline by several hundred dollars.
If I had to guess, I would say that the initial downturn will be a little less dramatic than the subsequent recovery from this negative slope, but I can't really tell you for sure. What I can tell you is that the economic condition in the United States will have a major impact on this, and it will also determine if this eventual move away from oil will turn out to be a temporary setback or if it will turn out to be a permanent phenomenon.
As a matter of fact, if you looked at the history, it would appear that nations that have gone through periods of negative gold prices usually ended up dropping their reserves by one third or more. This is because they simply ran out of money.
Not only does this bring in the public opinion for hoarding gold, but it also gives them an indication of what the monetary authorities are thinking. In other words, if there is a problem with the dollar, you'll know it because gold prices will rise, and if there is a problem with the supply of dollars, you'll know it because gold prices will fall.
In fact, if this keeps up, you'll notice that nations that are buying gold because they feel it is undervalued will face a major problem when the negative slope starts. This is because gold will be considered a reserve currency that is worth something like one hundred percent of its face value, and this is a great place for governments to put their hard assets when the dollar is in trouble, and that's where gold will be highly demanded.
To be successful, you really need to get their attention in order to achieve your goals, and when you get your agenda passed by international leaders, you will be able to realize that you have reached a critical mass of the population that is holding gold, and it is just a matter of time before the dollar collapses in a disorderly manner. and you will be forced to change course.